蒙特卡罗方法在危险货物道路运输风险评价中的应用

在概率风险评价的基础上引入蒙特卡罗方法对危险货物道路运输进行风险评价.通过MATLAB软件编程对算例进行模拟试验,结果表明蒙特卡罗方法对危险货物道路运输风险评价具有有效性和合理性,能够得出更加客观的风险评价结果,增强了风险评价的科学性.     

重金属和有机氯农药在沈阳郊区农田土壤中的吸附和迁移

采用静态吸附和土柱淋溶实验研究了重金属和有机氯农药在沈阳郊区农田土壤中的迁移转化规律.吸附实验结果表明,土壤对Pb和Cd阳离子的吸附大于对Cr(VI)和As(V)阴离子的吸附,对Cr(VI)的吸附大于对有机氯农药六六六(BHC,包括α-BHC、β-BHC、γ-BHC、δ-BHC)和滴滴涕(DDT,包括o,p'-DDT、p,p'-DDT)的吸附能力.土柱淋溶实验结果表明,Cr(VI)和As(V)在耕层土壤中的迁移速度远大于Pb、Cd的迁移速度,α-BHC由于淋溶液初始浓度较低,因而迁移速度较慢.淋溶实验后,具有较高生物可利用性和迁移性的可交换态重金属的相对含量增加了1.2%～5.4%,从而增加了Pb、Cd、Cr和As等重金属对生态系统的威胁.结合吸附和迁移实验结果可知,所研究污染物中,Cr(VI)和As(V)对地下水的威胁较大,Pb和Cd对农业生产的威胁较大,而目前有机氯农药已被国家明令禁止使用,土壤中的部分残留有机氯农药由于土壤的吸附作用,使得其对农业生产的威胁逐渐减小,对地下水的威胁性也较小.     

基于生态安全的快速城市化地区空间冲突测度 ——以长株潭城市群为例

空间冲突是城市化过程中各种矛盾形成与激化的直接原因,是影响区域可持续发展的关键因素,合理测度快速城市化地区的空间冲突水平,对于优化区域发展模式、 避免区域生态风险具有重要意义。在利用遥感与GIS技术分析长株潭近年来空间格局变化的基础上,量化影响区域生态安全的空间外部压力值、 生态风险暴露值、 生态风险效应值3个因子,构建基于生态安全的空间冲突测度模型,对长株潭地区的空间冲突水平进行评估。研究表明:近年来长株潭地区的空间冲突作用强度总体呈现上升趋势,1993—2008年其冲突指数均值由0.264增长到0.323,且严重失控级别空间冲突的区域面积比例增幅最大,达1.07倍;不同空间类型的空间冲突强度不同,林地、 耕地的空间冲突水平相对较低,建设用地的空间冲突水平较高;城乡过渡地带是空间格局变化最为频繁、 空间冲突最为激烈的区域,其次是城市内部,农村地区的空间冲突强度远远低于城市。     

城市轨道交通浮置式减振措施的减振降噪效果

从分析轨道交通地下隧道振动传播特征出发,说明了地下振动的传播规律,并给出了不同埋深条件下地下振动影响范围的经验公式;结合地下振动激发频率特征的分析,对减振措施的减振效果的合理评价量进行了分析,指出采用Z计权减振效果评价量将获得与实际应用效果一致的降噪效果。结合两种浮置式减振措施减振降噪效果的实测,指出浮置板道床的减振效果应采用安装减振垫浮置板道床前后桥面的Z振级差来评价,而不宜采用轨面与桥梁直接的振级落差来评价。对橡胶减振垫以及钢弹簧浮置板的实测减振降噪效果进行了介绍。     

日本交通部门碳排放与低碳交通相关因素研究

本文就日本向低碳社会体系转型的过程中,交通部门碳排放现状、都市交通体系构成、实施对策等方面进行了分析,探讨其交通运输领域低碳交通的相关因素及发展模式,为中国低碳交通体系的构建提供参考。     

基于综合交通运输成本的港口后勤区域区位评价——以上海外高桥保税物流园区为例

港口后勤区域是港口功能的重要拓展空间,已成为影响港口物流运营效率的重要因素。运用ARCVIEW网络分析模块,从交通运输成本的角度,通过分析港口后勤区域候选点到直接腹地、间接腹地的运输成本,以及各候选点的综合运输成本进而对外高桥港口后勤区域区位进行研究。研究表明:外高桥保税物流园区至港区的运输成本系数为0.381 4、0.275 9、0.319 5和0.211 8,整体处于较高水平;到直接腹地的运输成本系数分别为1.107 93、1.136 49、1.085 24和1.109 76,处于偏低水平;到间接腹地的运输成本系数分别为0.874 5、0.935、0.825 4和0.874,整体处于中等水平;到腹地的运输成本系数分别为0.944 5、0.995 4、0.903 4和0.944 7,整体处于中等偏弱地位。外高桥保税物流园区到港区和腹地的综合运输成本系数分别为0.663、0.635 7、0.611 4和0.578 2,综合区位条件较好。今后,随着外高桥港区货运量的增加,保税物流园区应该向东南方向拓展。     

Strategic Study on Integration of Port and City Development in Rizhao

Abstract

Agglomeration of the Yangtze Delta (UAYD), one of the most developed regions of China, has witnessed an increasing prevalence in building ecological cities when the ecological cities are pursued by many modern cities, and great achievements have been made in this regard. It is inevitable, however, that certain problems exist during the construction of ecological city, which include but not limited to non-harmonious development of urban complex ecosystem, and the difficulty in quantifying eco-city construction or incomplete quantification in assessing the construction of present and future eco-city. Based on the analysis on social-economic conditions and regional conditions of the UAYD, this paper attempts to set up an index system of eco-cities combining with local characteristics, and to adopt the indices of eco-city, urban harmony, and eco-city colligate to evaluate the ecological level, urban harmonious development and eco-city construction of cities within the UAYD. Results indicate that among 15 cities in UAYD, Suzhou City ranks the highest in terms of eco-city construction, whereas Nantong ranks relatively lower; sustainable eco-city construction is possible only when cities are developed in every respect of harmony.     

Advancing urban ecosystem governance in New York City: Shifting towards a unified perspective for conservation management

New York City’s extensive municipal park system is home to forests, wetlands, and grasslands that provide important ecological and social benefits to the city’s population. While efforts and programs exist to restore and protect these spaces, management recommendations are complex due to variable conditions in urban natural areas. To advance the management of urban natural areas, the first comprehensive ecological assessment was conducted through a collaborative effort across 4000 ha of natural areas within New York City parkland. Field and spatial data were collected and analyzed to identify the extent of forests, the types of forests, and their conditions. This approach will help guide decision-making and prioritization of natural area management at the regional level by developing unique quantitative targets for urban forests. This project serves as an example of collaboration between private and public institutions advancing the governance of urban natural areas to achieve citywide conservation and policy goals.     

Using participatory geographic approaches for urban flood risk in Santiago de Chile: Insights from a governance analysis

Studies based on information acquired by participative geographic approaches have sought to cope with emergency situations and disasters such as floods. However, the impact of these approaches to flood risk governance systems in order to understand these types of events as a complete risk cycle is still not clear. This paper focuses on analysing the governance possibilities of using participative geographic information like volunteered and public participatory geographic information for flood risk reduction in the case of Santiago de Chile, a city which regularly experiences urban floods during rainy seasons. Based on in-depth interviews and document analysis, our study indicates that a relevant part of the current information used for flood risk reduction efforts is provided to local and regional authorities by the affected population. Though, local actors are not recognized by central agencies as valid agents for the production of official information. Moreover, there are neither instances of communication or deliberation with the community, which reduces the capacity of local actors to discuss possible solutions. Participative geographic instruments are seen as potential mechanisms to strengthen work relations among local actors and authorities, by enhancing new logics for producing and sharing information. The impacts for the current risk governance system though can be diverse depending on the participants' level of commitment of participants and the political relations between actors and agencies. Considered as merely data acquisition and analysis mechanisms, participative instruments reproduce the existing hierarchical top-down structures. Furthermore, local-based approaches can enhance local work, support local diagnostics and increase the decision capacity of citizens.     

The value of urban ecosystem services in New York City: A spatially explicit multicriteria analysis of landscape scale valuation scenarios

Mapping, modeling, and valuing urban ecosystem services are important for integrating the ecosystem services concept in urban planning and decision-making. However, decision-support tools able to consider multiple ecosystem services in the urban setting using complex and heterogeneous data are still in early development. Here, we use New York City (NYC) as a case study to evaluate and analyze how the value of multiple ecosystem services of urban green infrastructure shifts with shifting governance priorities. We first examined the spatial distribution of five ecosystem services – storm water absorption, carbon storage, air pollution removal, local climate regulation, and recreation – to create the first multiple ecosystem services evaluation of all green infrastructure in NYC. Then, combining an urban ecosystem services landscape approach with spatial multicriteria analysis weighting scenarios, we examine the distribution of these ecosystem services in the city. We contrast the current NYC policy preference – which is focused on heavy investment in stormwater absorption – with a valuation approach that also accounts for other ecosystem services. We find substantial differences in the spatial distribution of priority areas for green infrastructure for the valuation scenarios. Among the scenarios we examined for NYC, we find that a scenario in which only stormwater absorption is prioritized leads to the most unevenly distributed ES values. By contrast, we find least variation in ES values where stormwater absorption, local climate regulation, carbon storage, air pollution removal, and recreational potential are all weighted equally.We suggest that green infrastructure planning strategies should include all landscape components that contribute to the production of ecosystem services and consider how planning priority alternatives generate different ecosystem services values.